How forecasting works
Stokk produces a demand forecast for every active SKU, at every active location, every night. Replenishment, safety stock, and the Morning Brief all read from these forecasts.
What goes in
- Sales history — the trailing 84 days of daily sales per location/SKU.
- Seasonality — yearly, weekly, and weekday patterns when there's enough history.
- Item config — lead time and order day on the location, plus the supplier's SIF.
What you get
A forecast value per item per location for each day in the planning horizon (typically 8–12 weeks). Replenishment uses the demand between today and lead-time-plus-order-period to size each order.
Items with under 14 days of sales are classified as new in ABC and excluded from the standard model until they've been selling long enough. Until then, replenishment for them runs off a fallback path rather than the trained forecast.
When the forecast updates
Once per night, in the forecast snapshots cron job. New sales, new items, or item-level overrides made today won't show in the forecast until tomorrow. You can see the timestamp of the last run on the Dashboard's System Health card.
Looking at history
The Forecast Accuracy report compares each day's forecast against actuals over time. Use it to find SKUs where the model is consistently wrong; those usually need a parameter override or an exclusion.